On Monday, based on the statistics bureau data, Indonesia’s annual inflation rate was down for a fifth consecutive month in November, hitting its lowest since December 2016, which made Bank Indonesia leeway to keep from increasing interest rates if the U.S. Federal Reserve tightens later this month as expected.
The headline consumer price index, which is used to measure inflation across the country, increased 3.30 percent in November from a year earlier, slowing from a 3.58 percent year-over-year increase in October. Inflation was expected to increase 3.40 percent on a year-over-year and 0.30 percent on a month-over-month.
On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose 0.20 percent after a 0.01 percent increase in October.
Prices of some raw food, such as garlic and tomatoes, were down in November, but prices of processed food and housing rose.
Excluding volatile food prices and administered prices, the core inflation rate climbed 3.05 percent year-over-year, down from 3.07 in October and against analysts’ estimation of 3.10 percent.
The central bank of Indonesia cut borrowing costs a total of half a percentage point this year to lift economic growth. It recently estimated that the country’s inflation by year-end to be at around 3.0 to 3.5 percent.
Tourist Arrivals Data
The country received 938,250 foreign tourists in October, up 2.70 percent from the similar month last year, the statistics bureau showed on Monday.
It is said to be the slowest growth since June 2016 and compares with a 12.70 percent yearly rise in September. This was due to the alert status held for Mount Agung in Bali, the statistics bureau noted. The alert was initially raised in September.
In October, the sum total of foreign visitors, including those passing through Indonesia’s borders from nearby countries and foreign workers with permits for less than a year, was 1.16 million, jumped 11.33 percent from a year earlier.
Factory Activity Data
Last month, Indonesia’s industrial sector improved moderately after growth slowed in October. An industry survey showed that the weakness in the currency and lack of resources continued to boost costs for factories.
The Nikkei Indonesia Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index, or PMI, rose 50.4 in November from 50.1 in October as factory production continued to increase and new orders growth slightly picked up.
“[The expansion] was underpinned by stronger expansion in output and new orders, though the rates of increase were modest overall,” said Aashna Dodha, an economist at IHS Markit, which compiles the survey.
However, export order growth decelerated evidently and the pace of jobs shedding remained more or less steady. Input costs also rose because of raw materials and currency weakness relative to the U.S. dollar.
“The degree of business confidence towards the 12-month outlook for output was bolstered to the strongest in three months, despite being relatively weak in comparison to historical standards,” the economist added.
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