The crude’s increases are continuing today; the prices are still riding the positive wave from last week’s shrinking oil glut. The commodity is looking to be extending the positive gains until the end of the week because of the growing cut in the fuel inventories and the US government’s adjusted forecasts for crude output for next year.


Oil’s Price

The prices at the New York Mercantile Exchange for sweet crude futures for August were at $45.93 per barrel, a massive 2% increase or a total of 89 cents in the Globex electronic session. For the Brent crude, August delivery was up by a total of $48.34 a barrel or a total of 1.8% at 81 cents. This is a brighter outcome on the US Energy Information Administration’s decision to lower its outlook on Brent Crude for the next 2 years by $2 and $4 to $51 per barrels and $52 per barrels respectively.

Oil prices were just continuing the positivity from yesterday’s session which was up by 1.4%.This is because of the industry group American Petroleum Institute showed data that the oil production was really cut down; it was at 8.1 million contractions in the US crude supplies last week.


Analysts Expectation

A lot of analysts are looking at a positive future for the crude oil and the output cuts that were announced; the initial output cut expectation for last week was at 2.8 million barrels but it turns out that inventories fell by 8.1 million barrels per day.

Prominent financial firm Goldman Sachs noted that “We believe the coming month will be key to testing whether producers are responding to the signal of $45/bbl WTI prices,” they also mentioned that the upcoming earnings season will surely be an impressive indicator for American producers. The financial firm also believes that the prices will continue to blossom as long as the rig count and oil production remains stable and steady.

While Barclay;s Michael Cohen begs to differ, on his recent note he said that “In spite of these factors, flattening front-month timespreads, strong physical markets and  refinery margins, substantial US weekly inventory draws, and new unplanned outages in  non-OPEC countries should keep Brent prices from declining to less than $45/b. Therefore, we are maintaining a more constructive stance on prices in the second half of the year. Given current price levels it now seems a stretch to achieve $57 Brent on an average basis for the third quarter so we are marking our price forecast lower to take into account the lower starting point to $49/b Brent for Q3 and to $54/b for Q4.”

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