Crude prices rose higher on Monday, boosted by hopes for new output cuts prior to a meeting between OPEC leaders and US shale producers later in the day.
The US West Texas Intermediate crude April contract climbed 51 cents, or about 0.83 percent, at $61.76 per barrel. This was a bounce up from Friday’s two-and-a-half-week lows of $61.13.
Meanwhile, Brent oil for May delivery on the ICE Futures Exchange in London increased 54 cents, or about 0.84 percent, to $64.91 per barrel. This came after it hit a two-week rock bottom of $63.20 last Thursday.
Oil ministers from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and US shale firms were scheduled to gather in Houston for the largest energy industry conference, which is the so-called CERAWeek. It is set to begin on Monday.
Rising US output has influenced oil prices in recent months. There have also been worries that it could undermine the global efforts to rid the market of excess supplies.
General Electric’s Bake Hughes unit reported on Friday that the US energy companies increased 1 oil rig in the week that ended in March 2. The total count now is 800, the highest level since April in 2015.
OPEC and other non-OPEC members, who are led by Russia, agreed in December to extend oil supply cuts until the end of this year. The deal requires the participant producers to cut supplies by 1.8 million barrels a day. It was adopted last winter by OPEC, Russia, and nine other global producers. The agreement was due to expire in March 2018, but was extended until the end of the year.
On the other hand, market participants were still digesting Trump’s announcement of imposing tariffs of 25 percent on imported steel and 10 percent on aluminum. Trump claimed that it was a move to “protect US industry.”
The announcement of the move raised concerns over a potential trade war, which would have a negative impact on the US economy. It would potentially send back the dollar steeply lower.
The US dollar index, which gauges the dollar’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, was higher 0.08 percent at 90.3 after slipping to 89.83 last Friday.
A stronger dollar usually pulls down dollar-denominated commodities.
US Shale Oil Output to Increase Over the Next Five Years
According to the International Energy Agency, US shale oil output is expected to rise over the next five years. This would steal market share from OPEC producers and would move the country closer to self-sufficiently. The US was once the world’s top oil importer.
US oil output has continued its sharp growth over the past year. It is also expected to rise by 2.7 million barrels per day to 12.1 million barrels per day by 2023. This is because growth from shale fields more than counters declines in conventional supplies.
Natural gas liquids will add another 1 million barrels per day to reach 4.7 million barrels per day by 2023.
With total US liquids production set to reach nearly 17 million barrels per day in 2023, the US will be recorded as the world’s top oil liquids producer.
“The United States is set to put its stamp on global oil markets for the next five years,” said Fatih Birol, the IEA’s executive director.
Further, the IEA said that oil production growth from the US, Brazil, Canada, and Norway will meet and possibly exceed demand growth through 2020. The IEA added that more investment would be needed to boost output after that.
Meanwhile, non-OPEC production is set to increase as much as 5.2 million barrels per day by 2023 to 63.3 million barrels per day, with the US alone accounting for more than half of global supply growth.
“Despite talk of capital discipline and increased focus on returns rather than growth, US producers regrouped quickly when oil prices stabilized and began to rise,” said the IEA.
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