After the conclusion of the first United States Presidential Debate, Asian shares recovered from early drops while the Mexican peso spiked on Tuesday as investors declared Democrat Hillary Clinton winner of the debate against Republican Donald Trump.
On Tuesday, the Mexican peso gained strength versus the greenback. The USD/MXN pair is presently trading within the 19.5481 level, and dropped to its lowest of 19.4365, around 0.9% less than the previous trading day’s low of 19.6050, which closed on the green.
It wasn’t only just the USD/MXN that was affected by the first US presidential one on one debate as it also affected other markets. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rose 0.5%. Japan’s Nikkei swung 0.3% higher, and the US dollar rebounded to 100.83 yen from a one-month low about 100.08 yen. An unusually large move for Asian hours also occurred for the e-mini futures of S&P 500, recovering to gain 0.6%.
A senior currency analyst at Westpac in Sydney, Sean Callow said that markets started to call the debate for Hillary within the first 15 minutes or so, with the Mexican peso surging in what is probably its busiest Asian session in years. The bounce in the S%P Futures, AUD and USD/JPY all show that investors were watching closely and didn’t hesitate to declare Trump the loser.
A CNN poll of viewers, which the broadcaster noted was likely skewed somewhat to Democrats, showed 62% thought Clinton won the debate with 27% for Trump. As if the poll wasn’t enough, what was called a “Trump thermometer” also confirmed Trump the loser.
According to David Bloom, London-based global head of forex strategy at HSBC, “There is a thing called Trump thermometer. If you want to know who won the presidential debate, don’t go to Twitter or Facebook. Just look at the dollar/Mexico peso.”
Did Hillary Really Do Great?
Looking at the above chart, it is seen that since September 7 the greenback has gained versus the Mexican peso. This is due to the concerns that a Trump victory would threaten Mexico’s exports to the United States, its single biggest market.
Trump has attracted widespread hostility in Mexico for his threats to deport immigrants who are in the US illegally, and to build a wall along the US-Mexico border. In the debate, he emphasized once again that the US jobs were flowing to Mexico and that the North American Free Trade Agreement was a disadvantage to the United States.
When a lot of people thought the Hillary won the debate, this gave hopes to the investors that she might win, and that the Mexico would remain untouched. However, not everyone thought Hillary did great.
“Clinton wins the debate; the key question is if this first debate stops the momentum of Trump,” Arturo Sarukan, a former Mexican ambassador in Washington, said on Twitter. “Not yet I think.”
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